Since the new gas pipeline under the Strait of Magellan started operating at the beginning of July, the gas transport capacity has reached 136 million cubic metres per day. However, 122 million cubric metres are entering the local natural gas system, representing a decrease of 10 percent (-14 million cubric metres) compared to previous estimates. These figures also include natural gas imported from Bolivia (4.5 million cubric metres per day), as well as the liquefied natural gas representing another 8 million cubric metres per day.When this data is compared to previous year's level (131 millions), shortage totals 9 million cubric metres per day, as a consequence of the decreasing local production. It can be confirmed that the natural gas provision in the current winter season is under a higher risk of scarcity than in previous years. The cold wave beginning today will trigger unavoidable shutdowns in natural gas supply.
Last weekend the government downplayed any possible cut in natural gas supply to the industrial sector. The Gas Regulating Body ENARGAS meanwhile said that some natural gas contracts contemplate an interruptible gas service, whereas other contracts are under firm service agreements, but also contemplating certain partial shutdowns if necessary.
When cold weather triggers residential consumption, partial shutdowns are first implemented on interruptible gas service. Then, they are carried out in those firm service agreements contemplating certain partial shutdowns. If the total amount of natural gas still doesn't meet domestic demand, the government is to decide whether to cut or not the provision of compressed natural gas (CNG) to vehicles. In practice, within the framework of this last stage, the official decision depends on the pressure exerted by every part.
While in an official visit to Tucumán province, and echoing this situation under the pressure of local industry, Planning Minister Julio De Vido denied any possible power problem in Argentina. "Only when we reach the peak demand, it is necessary to cut interruptible gas service. The usual supply of natural gas will not affect local sugar cane processing plants because there is no such thing as a power crisis in Argentina," the official added.
Gas Regulating Body ENARGAS meanwhile expressed that the local natural gas system "is operating normally within the framework of the current winter season, supported by the total local output, the gas imports from Bolivia, and the re-gasifier ship operating to the utmost capacity."
As a consequence of the cold wave, residential natural gas consumption may reach more than 80 million cubric metres per day. Since the cold wave also triggers local electricity consumption, at least 1 million cubic metres per day are sent to thermal generating stations such as Genelba.
This means only 32 million cubric metres will be available, 6 million cubic metres out of which are spilled in gas papelines due to technical reasons; and 8 million cubic metres are to be used as compressed natural gas (CNG). If the latter is not interrupted, there would be only 18 million cubric metres to meet an industrial demand currently totalling 47 million cubric metres. The government will end up distributing the remaining 38 percent through an emergency committee, following its own personal criteria. Meanwhile, the supply of natural gas for most of the local sugar cane processing plants is under an interruptible gas service. Also, Planning Minister De Vido confirmed they won't have any issue regarding natural gas shortage.
Yet another inconvenience is that the cold wave -covering a great part of the national territory, including Buenos Aires city- is expected to last until Friday, according to the National Weather Service. This agency has also forecasted few days under extreme cold weather for this winter.
The project for another compressed natural gas re-gasifier has been suspended due to the official weather forecast, as well as a governmental concern on the current fiscal situation.
By Silvia Peco for Ambito.com
Translated by Jimena Gibert
Source: http://www.ambito.com/noticia.asp?id=531721
